Why I don’t gamble

I have terrible luck. Not in life, or anything along those lines. It’s just that when it comes down to the luck of the draw, spin of the wheel, anything purely chance-based – I will most likely (99.5% of the time) lose.

Therefore, I will never buy a lottery ticket, because even the ones that have been bought for me as presents haven’t even yielded a single cent in payoff. I will never go to casino because frankly, I like my money in my wallet where it belongs. When I ride the Racers at Kennywood, I buckle myself in knowing full well that I have brought the doom of failure to my entire coaster train.

And yet, I will run an instance five dozen times and still have some semblance of hope that the item I need will drop, and if it drops, I’d actually win it.

The best illustration of this would be the old Dungeon 1 set. I forced myself to learn how to kite pull Drak – and survive – purely to convince people to run UBRS with me. I invested in shadow resist to clear out Scholo until I could do the instance in my sleep. And still somehow I went months without winning my chestpiece or the headpiece. When the shaman helm dropped one day, I realized that its stats were better than the one I was wearing, so I took it and wore it all the way until Tchann set foot in Hellfire Peninsula.

So, I don’t really expect my entry in the WoWlympics to garner anything, and I wasn’t too surprised when my husband got his beta invite and my inbox stayed sadly empty. Luck isn’t on my side, and unfortunately there is quite a bit in WoW that requires luck – the biggest of which is loot.

And while I’ll whimper and whine and cry about how the game must hate me when my chestpiece never drops, or when the helm drops and the other hunter beat my loot roll by about 87, I know in the end that the cardinal rule of loot is always in effect:

Random loot is random.

Nothing I can possibly do will change which loot will drop. Nothing I can possibly do will change what I get on a /roll. The biggest misconception I see when it comes to loot is that ‘an xx% drop rate means it will drop xx times out of 100 kills’.

But what did I say above? Random loot is random.

When you flip a coin, it has a 50% chance to land heads up. Math/statistics then try to say that the next time you flip it, the chance of it landing heads two times in a row is reduced. Three times in a row sees the likelihood go down even more, and four times in a row decreases another amount. 100 times in a row would be seemingly impossible, right?

But when you flip the coin that second time, guess what the chance is: 50% to land heads up.
The third time: 50% to land heads up.
The fourth time: 50% to land heads up.

Sometimes, all we get are tails. And sometimes, hunters wear shammy hats when raiding.

/sigh

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